All the states and nations closing coal and natural gas power plants in pursuit of net-zero emissions are approaching a critical point where the lights will start to flicker every night when there is no sunshine, and the wind is low. 

The subsidized and mandated wind and solar power are displacing, but not replacing, the continuously uninterruptible generated electricity via fossil fuels. Reliance on UNRELIABLE generated electricity is a fool’s game.

Britain, Germany, South Australia, and California, the fourth largest economy in the world, have passed the critical “tipping point” and they survive by importing power from neighbouring states, and shedding power-intensive industries. Isolated grids like Australia and Texas are seriously at risk.

Policymakers are oblivious that people use electricity for lighting, heating, cooling, and refrigeration and for operating appliances, computers, electronics, machinery, and public transportation systems.

For safety, security, and life support, several needs are for CONTINUOUS and UNINTERUPTABLE electricity, such as that for:

• Computers
• Communications
• Telemetry
• Datacenters
• Airports
• Air Traffic control
• Hospitals

In addition to our personal consumption of electricity, there are massive demands for smelters, heavy industry and the burgeoning use of AI and cloud storage for data centers. Mark Mills at the Manhattan Institute claims that the cloud is on the way to becoming the biggest infrastructure project in human history. Two years ago, Mr. Mills reported that the cloud was consuming twice as much electricity as Japan, the world’s third largest economy.

It is incomprehensible that policymakers are adopting goals to move to 100 percent “clean” ELECTRICTY by 2050. The elephant in the room that no policymaker understands nor wants to discuss is that:

• The nameplate generation capacity (installed capacity vs actual generation) of both solar and wind equipment is a total farce. Time of day solarization and the vagaries of weather determine the power output of both systems, this has no relationship whatsoever with the nameplate capacity value. As these systems also exhibit frequent mechanical failures due to wear and damage from weather conditions, they should be subject to penalties for periods of inactivity. Further, they should be subject to additional penalties for failure to provide adequate back-up generation during periods when there is no sun illumination, or the wind speed level is inadequate.

A 3-minute video on How Wind Turbines are Built is a MUST viewing, especially since all those efforts and materials are for the generation of electricity dependent on breezes that do not work most of the time! Before we continue to fund the albatross idea of occasional electricity generated from wind, a worthwhile article that should be read is The Titanic scale of floating wind turbines quantifiedby David Wojick.

Policymakers setting “green” policies are oblivious to the reality that Electricity came AFTER the discovery of oil 200 years ago.

• ALL electrical generation from hydro, coal, natural gas, nuclear, wind, and solar are ALL built with the products, components, and equipment that are made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil.

• All EV’s, solar panels, and wind turbines are also built with the products, components, and equipment that are made from the oil derivatives manufactured from crude oil.

Electricity is the lifeblood of modern society, alongside the incredible range of more than 6,000 petrochemical products.

They 6,000 products made from fossil fuels enable people to live lives of ease and comfort that were inconceivable for the masses in the past. They are the basis of modern life, providing thousands of products that are ubiquitous in modern society. The same products that wind and solar CANNOT make!

Efforts to cease the use of crude oil, without a planned replacement, could be the greatest threat to civilization’s eight billion.

The reason for this power shortage crisis is as simple as ABC.

• Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.
• The continuity of renewable electricity is broken on nights with little or no wind (wind droughts.)
• There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.
• That means the transition to wind and solar power can’t proceed with current storage technology.

Policymakers are incapable of participating in CONVERSATIONS to talk about their Plan B to keep the lights on if Plan A fails. No coherent reply was forthcoming, and it looks as though the best we can expect is subsidies to keep the coal fires burning.

The official energy story is not likely to have a happy ending and the time has come for a new energy narrative based on realism and concern for the welfare of people and the planet. Let’s be energy realists and responsible stewards of the environment.

Electricity realism rules in China and the developing world as they scramble for all the coal, oil and gas they can get. Meanwhile the nations of the west emulate the mythical farmer who incrementally reduced the rations of his workhorse until it died. We run down coal power and gas until there is not enough conventional electricity that is continuous and uninterruptable, and parts of the grid are likely to die on nights when there is no sunshine and little or no wind. 

Britain and Germany have passed that point and they are rapidly deindustrializing. Their collapse is cushioned by importing power from neighbours like Norway, France and Poland who are well-served with conventional power.

Today, California imports more electricity than any other US state, more than twice the amount of Virginia, the second largest importer of electricity. California typically receives between one-fifth and one-third of its electricity supply from outside of the state. The horrific electrical grid problems in Texas have been documented by the Press time and time again.

Power prices are rocketing into the stratosphere and, even before winter drives up demand, are being deprived of electricity in a way that was unthinkable barely a decade ago. But such is life when you attempt to run on sunshine and breezes.

To reiterate, and to stimulate conversations on Energy Literacy education, a must viewing is this 8-minute video: Mandatory Emissions To Achieve Net-Zero Is A Fool’s Game.