In the 21st century, the Arctic region has become highly significant in terms of strategy, geopolitics, and economics. Science is playing a substantial role in the Arctic, raising global awareness about its distinct ecosystem and the ongoing geopolitical maneuvers by both Arctic and non-Arctic states.
Researchers are not only uncovering the complexities of the region’s environment but also providing essential data. Scientific research has been central in helping for natural resources exploitation found in the region. Arctic states are spending millions to document their territorial boundaries and non-Arctic states like China and India also strengthen their bids.
The Arctic, long described as the world’s last frontier, has emerged as first frontier, a largely undeveloped region rich in untapped resources and economic potential. As climate change reduces ice coverage, the area is becoming increasingly accessible, making it a prime target for economic activities. The Arctic is fast becoming a critical region in global geopolitics due to its vast untapped resources and emerging strategic significance.
The region is estimated to hold 13% of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil around 90 billion barrels, 30% of its conventional natural gas, and approximately $1 trillion worth of minerals. As global warming accelerates, the prospect of ice-free Arctic by 2040 could open new maritime routes, significantly shortening the travel time between Asia and Europe. This potential has driven nations like China and India to intensify their interest in the Arctic, seeking to enhance their geopolitical influence, leading to potential competition in the region.
China, in particular, has made substantial steps in the Arctic. Its first Arctic Policy, released in 2018, outlined Beijing’s strategic goals, including the integration of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) with its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a move referred to as the “Polar Silk Route.” The Polar Silk Route refers to the navigable Arctic Sea routes linking North America, East Asia, and Western Europe through the Arctic Circle. The NSR, passing through Russia’s Special Economic Zone, offers a maritime route that bypasses the Malacca Strait, a chokepoint surrounded by Western-allied states. This route would reduce the transit time between China and Europe by approximately 40% compared to the Suez Canal. China has also invested heavily in icebreaker ships, crucial for navigating Arctic waters, with its fourth icebreaker, Jidi, significantly enhancing its ability to govern and monitor Arctic channels.
In contrast, India has lagged in its Arctic endeavors. Initially, India’s 2022 Arctic Policy focused on scientific exploration, particularly studying the Arctic’s impact on the Indian monsoon. However, China’s progressions have incited India to rethink its strategy. While the NSR does not offer a direct trade benefit to India due to its geography, it postures a strategic risk by potentially fading India’s influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). In response, India has sought to enhance its maritime connectivity, exemplified by a 2019 Memorandum of Intent signed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to explore a maritime corridor between Chennai and Vladivostok in Russia’s Far East. This corridor serves as both a trade route and a strategic countermeasure to China’s growing presence in the Arctic.
The race for Arctic resources further intensifies the geopolitical competition between India and China, both major importers of fossil fuels. Russia, heavily sanctioned by the West, is eager for foreign investment to develop its Arctic resources, which contribute 20% of its GDP. China has already established a strong presence in the Russian Arctic, with 359 state-owned companies operating there and nearly $90 billion invested in energy, mineral and primarily liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Russia, however, is cautious of becoming overly dependent on China and has turned to India to balance its reliance. Indian state-owned companies like Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) have expressed interest in further investing in the Arctic, adding to their existing stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil project.
The geopolitical dynamics in the Arctic are further complicated by the induction of Sweden and Finland into NATO, which, along with other Arctic states in the alliance, poses a challenge to China’s ambitions in the region. In the interim, the growing cooperation between China and Russia, coupled with Chinese investments in Greenland and Iceland, has raised concerns in the West. However, this situation could present an opportunity for India. Unlike China, which is focused primarily on the Russian Arctic, India maintains cordial relations with both the United States and Russia, allowing it to explore the Arctic more broadly. Through initiatives like the Indo-Nordic Summits, India has engaged in multilateral cooperation with Nordic states, which are permanent members of the Arctic Council.
Despite the material asymmetry between India and China, India has positioned itself as a significant player in the Arctic through skilled diplomacy and strategic partnerships. Similarly, through its ownership of Alaska, the United States has consistently emphasized its presence in the Arctic, underscoring its significant interests in the region. The United States’ 2024 Arctic Policy, which aims to counter the influence of Russia and China in the region, could provide India with further opportunities to assert itself as an independent actor. By engaging with both the US and Russia, India could avoid over-reliance on any single power and potentially act as a mediator between the two in Arctic affairs. This approach would enhance India’s geopolitical relevance and maintain its strategic autonomy in the region.
The emerging strategic competition in the Arctic, driven by the interests of major powers has garnered global attention. While China’s early investments have given it a head start, India is leveraging its diplomatic and strategic ties to catch up. Though, the competition for resources in the Arctic, coupled with the risk of environmental degradation, poses significant challenges. The Arctic Council’s role in establishing clear protocols to manage this competition will be decisive in ensuring the sustainable and peaceful development of the region.