The $62bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), formally launched in 2015 was to be a “Game-Changer” for Pakistan’s economy. It included the construction of a flagship seaport Gwadar, power plants and road networks across the South Asian country. The CPEC is a key flagship project component of China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive network of roads, bridges and ports spread across over 100 countries that Beijing hopes will recreate the ancient Silk Road trade routes linking Europe and Asia.
The BRI is seen as an attempt by China to further its influence abroad with infrastructure projects funded by Chinese investments across the world. China has also invested billions in various power projects and road networks in Pakistan under the CPEC plan, but the implementation of various projects has slowed in recent months. But the BRI is like a game of the Chinese Chess (strategy board game played in China from about ad 700) that puts poorer countries such as Pakistan under its belt.
CPEC’s terminus Gwadar, is a port city in Pakistan’s Balochistan province. The plan for CPEC is to connect Gwadar with Xinjiang, the Uyghur Autonomous Region, through a network of highways, railways, and pipelines. CPEC would boost trade between Pakistan and China and give China access to the Indian Ocean warm waters for exports as well as a shorter route for imports of Middle Eastern oil. CPEC will provide for China, its 12,000-km oil transportation journey from the Gulf and is likely to get reduced to 2,395 km with a large saving. Strategically it also negates China’s Malacca dilemma and furthers its ambition to have a base in the Arabian Sea. The heart of the CPEC projects lies in Balochistan, a province that has never been integrated and remains restive. Yet nearly a decade later, questions hover over the future of the project:
“There is no CPEC in Gwadar, except security check posts that exist in the name of CPEC in Gwadar. So, if you ask me, CPEC projects in Gwadar are the names of security check posts.” – A Pakistani journalist
The CPEC as per the 2015 plan, was to include nine Special Economic Zones (SEZs) – designated areas with lenient trade laws to promote growth. But none have been completed so far. The CPEC was estimated to generate more than two million employment opportunities for Pakistanis, but government data says less than 250,000 jobs have been created so far. A move not supported by residents of the province.
The Baloch rebels now blame the Govt of Pakistan in connivance with the Chinese of looting their resources through the BRI-CPEC ambitious projects to include upgrade of roads, rail, industrial and electric power facilities with no benefits to its people.The business is yet to come to Gwadar. . . CPEC projects have not benefited local businessmen and traders, and there is hardly any business in Gwadar these days, even though CPEC was launched back in 2013.
Dozens of Chinese workers have been killed across Pakistan since 2018, mainly in Balochistan where an armed rebellion against the Pakistani state has been going on for several years. Attacks are on the increase in Balochistan marking an escalation in hostilities. The attacks are a consequence of the damage to Balochistan’s sociocultural and economic fabric.
The recent attacks on the death anniversary of Akbar Bugti on 26 Aug 2024, carried a distinct message of brutal assaults on security and police personnel to an infrastructure strike in Bolan and ethnic targeting of civilians. They proved their ability to attack and strike Punjabis at will. At least 73 people were killed including security personnel in the province of Balochistan when separatist militants attacked police stations, railway lines and highways and security forces. The assaults were the most widespread in years by ethnic militants fighting a decades-long insurgency to win secession of the resource-rich southwestern province, home to major China-led projects such as the Gwadar port and a gold and copper mine.
Regarding Chinese concerns about a conducive business environment and political stability, again Pakistan has little choice but to improve its performance in both areas. Foreign investors need to be facilitated, and bottlenecks must be eliminated. Furthermore, all local stakeholders must pledge to honour commitments with foreign parties, and not derail them when governments change. It is only in Pakistan’s interest to heed most of China’s advice.
China will be enthusiastic about forging ahead with new CPEC schemes, but due to concerns about the increasing security threats to its people and assets in Pakistan it has possibly slowed down. The recurring attacks on the Chinese personnel working on the CPEC projects by militant groups in Pakistan have become a major concern for China. The second phase of CPEC plans to complete 63 new projects, with an estimated value of $35 billion by 2030. This ambitious expansion highlights a mutual commitment to not only enhancing regional connectivity but also to fostering economic integration that reaches into Afghanistan and Central Asia.
CPEC was visioned to reshape Pakistan’s economy with its extensive network of roadways linking rural and urban areas. A pivotal element of this initiative was the strategic placement of nine Special Economic Zones (SEZs) along these critical routes, designed to attract substantial investment and drive economic growth.
Terrorism has, of course, affected Pakistan’s national economy and other projects such as CPEC. Besides the Baloch separatists targeting China, in Afghanistan, the Pakistan Taliban and their allies have also started regrouping in the Afghan region bordering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. That has raised the threat level for CPEC.
Chinese Prime Minister Li would be in Islamabad from October 14 to 16. This will be the first visit by any Chinese prime minister to Pakistan in 11 years. There is also a proposal for the Chinese prime minister to address a joint session of Parliament. Moreover, Premier Li would participate in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting for heads of government on October 16 “Significant agreements” are set to be signed, including proposals for the construction of the ML-I railway track in various phases. Pakistan also looks forward to boosting the bilateral ties through expediting the multi-dollar CPEC!
There is also almost certainly a reassessment of CPEC happening in Beijing. Hasan H. Karrar, China is starting to reassess its strategy: “There is a reassessment in China happening as to whether these investments are successful or not. Chinese investments are going to look quite different from now on, compared to the last 10 to 20 years.” There certainly is a limit to how much China is willing to invest if there are no returns. China’s ambassador to Pakistan Jiang Zaidong says that China knows Pakistan is going through economic challenges, and that “China is there to help their brother country Pakistan in any way possible.” But he quoted Mao Zedong and said: “Success requires you to stand on your own feet.”
Is the flagship project of the BRI suffering in Pakistan due to internal turmoil, disturbed security situation and is China growing tired of Pakistan? Appears the CPEC after a decade with promised opportunities has not taken off to fulfill the role of a game-changer in the regional development as dreamt by Pakistan.
References:
- Own earlier articles on BRI and CPEC
- ChinaFile an online Magazine